Degeneracy Instructions for Bodog Lines

I have dim opinions of the abilities of various betting agencies and/or their customers to set prices on hockey; but it is also common to say that making money consistently betting on hockey is hard. Purely for I-told-you-so purposes, I record here how I would bet if I were a gambling man given the posted lines on 2015-09-11, a few days after the Bodog lines came out. Not one of the lines is close enough to my model predictions to not give some value. My scheme is as follows: bet some fixed multiple of the 'value' entry for all thirty teams. That is, bet, say, 47 dollars on the under for Anaheim, 47 dollars on the over for the Coyotes, 32 dollars on the over on Columbus, and so on.

My intuition about where the model is good and bad is detailed in the previous post, but I very strongly believe that if one is to bet based on models, one should not permit oneself to make adjustments based on perceived model weaknesses. Model weaknesses should be fixed by altering the models construction, not the model outputs, ad hoc.

The Bodog odds are 53.5% for both over and under, which is, in passing, a shameful robbery of the degenerate public.

Team	Model Points	Model Std. Dev.	Bodog Line	Z-score of Line	Prob. of over	Prob. of under	Value in over	Value in under
Anaheim Ducks	94.7	8.3	105.5	1.29	0.0	1.0		0.47
Arizona Coyotes	91.7	8.3	80.5	-1.35	1.0	0.0	0.47
Boston Bruins	100.7	8.2	109.5	1.07	0.0	1.0		0.47
Buffalo Sabres	74.6	8.2	65.5	-1.11	1.0	0.0	0.47
Calgary Flames	87.5	8.3	72.5	-1.8	1.0	0.0	0.47
Carolina Hurricanes	88.5	8.3	81.5	-0.84	0.99	0.01	0.46
Chicago Blackhawks	105.4	8.1	111.5	0.76	0.02	0.98		0.45
Colorado Avalanche	85.5	8.3	95.5	1.19	0.0	1.0		0.47
Columbus Blue Jackets	93.5	8.3	90.5	-0.36	0.85	0.15	0.32
Dallas Stars	94.2	8.3	93.5	-0.09	0.6	0.4	0.07
Detroit Red Wings	97.1	8.2	91.5	-0.68	0.97	0.03	0.44
Edmonton Oilers	79.2	8.3	80.5	0.16	0.32	0.68		0.15
Florida Panthers	91.6	8.3	74.5	-2.05	1.0	0.0	0.47
Los Angeles Kings	106.8	8.0	106.5	-0.04	0.55	0.45	0.02
Minnesota Wild	90.9	8.4	98.5	0.91	0.0	1.0		0.47
Montreal Canadiens	89.0	8.3	93.5	0.54	0.06	0.94		0.41
Nashville Predators	90.9	8.3	80.5	-1.25	1.0	0.0	0.47
New Jersey Devils	100.6	8.2	86.5	-1.72	1.0	0.0	0.47
New York Islanders	89.3	8.3	87.5	-0.22	0.73	0.27	0.2
New York Rangers	96.8	8.3	95.5	-0.16	0.68	0.32	0.15
Ottawa Senators	91.2	8.3	79.5	-1.41	1.0	0.0	0.47
Philadelphia Flyers	91.3	8.3	88.5	-0.34	0.84	0.16	0.31
Pittsburgh Penguins	92.2	8.3	105.5	1.6	0.0	1.0		0.47
San Jose Sharks	101.6	8.2	102.5	0.11	0.38	0.62		0.09
St. Louis Blues	101.3	8.2	105.5	0.52	0.07	0.93		0.4
Tampa Bay Lightning	95.9	8.3	95.5	-0.05	0.56	0.44	0.03
Toronto Maple Leafs	72.3	8.2	88.5	1.99	0.0	1.0		0.47
Vancouver Canucks	95.5	8.3	88.5	-0.85	0.99	0.01	0.46
Washington Capitals	84.9	8.3	88.5	0.43	0.1	0.9		0.37
Winnipeg Jets	92.7	8.3	80.5	-1.47	1.0	0.0	0.47