Start of season predictions for 2014-2015

I've finalized the 2014-2015 prediction model (which I'll describe in a later post) but for today I've taken a hundred thousand simulations of the season and obtained my start-of-season predictions. Keep in mind that these predictions do not take any account of off-season moves, so they should be interpreted through that lens -- if you think a given team had an especially good or bad off-season, you should mentally bump them up or down as appropriate. In broad strokes, my own judgment agrees with the model (I trained it, after all) but after each division I'll give "my own" comments on the model predictions.

How to read these charts

The four green shades show the chances of making the playoffs in first through fourth in the division. The four red shades (three in the west) show the chances of missing the playoffs in fifth through eighth (seventh). The yellow bar shows the chance of making the playoffs in fifth; the orange bar shows the chance of missing the playoffs in fourth.
The large number is the predicted number of standings points. The smaller numbers above and below show one standard deviation each.
For example, the model predicts that the Bruins have around an 85-90% chance of making the playoffs; which breaks down as about 40% of finishing first in the Atlantic; around 25% to finish second, about 15% for third, about 10% of making the playoffs in fourth or fifth, and around a 10% chance of missing the playoffs altogether.

Atlantic

• The Leafs were extremely fortunate to be in the playoff conversation at any point last year, and while I think they've improved a little on-ice (and a lot off-ice), they'll remain terrible as their goaltending regresses and their shot suppression remains woeful, at least until they fire Carlyle (Christmas-ish?) at which point they might get a little better.
• The Sabres, who were abysmal last year, may actually have gotten (deliberately) worse; they are "rebuilding" the old-fashioned way, that is, burning their team to the ground and amassing a stockpile of draft picks the likes of which I've never seen. Expect McDavid.
• Habs possession numbers were middling this year and I think they'll drop back like the model suggests, although perhaps not quite as far as sixth.
• Senators predicted to be the bubble team that I think they are; most commentators seem to think they've taken a big step back this off-season but I don't see it. Could be surprising, could be unnotable also-rans.
• Panthers have surprisingly good possession numbers and now also Luongo and Ekblad. I suspect they'll be on the outside when the playoffs roll around but I expect them to be a nuisance to good teams and not an easy two points a-la Buffalo
• Lightning won't get Vezina goaltending from Bishop again but they are a very, very good team and deserve every bit of the third-place prediction. Also, they'll have Drouin this year, in case anybody forgot.
• Red Wings probably not as good as their numbers suggested last year as their best players are starting to suffer heavily from age regression. Probably a bubble team.
• Bruins had a bit of a complacent off-season and are in cap trouble now. Probably still enough raw talent to win the division as predicted.

Metropolitan

• Devils were incredibly unlucky last year relative to their possession. Their horrific shootout luck will go away and Schneider replacing Brodeur in goal is an enormous upgrade. I won't be at all surprised if they win the division as modelled.
• Rangers remain good, second seems about right.
• Bluejackets also not a flash in the pan; plenty of good players at every position. Third seems fine.
• Penguins have several extraordinary players but poor possession numbers, stemming largely from a dreadful bottom six. Teams like Toronto (!) this off-season have demonstrated how easy it is to find cheap, good bottom six players every single summer; it's frankly an unforgivable mistake from the management in Pittsburgh. I lean to the high side of the prediction but not by lots.
• Flyers seem like a bubble team; forwards are good and improving but defence is old and goal very suspect. Probably out for mine.
• Islanders had an amazing off-season and I expect them to be a huge pain. The logjam in the middle of the Metropolitan could be lengthy again.
• Hurricanes have gotten a little worse this offseason, I think they'll probably be squeezed out fairly early and will start trading what they can for picks.
• Capitals are, frankly, dreadful, and no quantity of Ovechkin can stop it. Last with a bullet.

Central

• Blackhawks are great and everybody knows it, including my model.
• Blues are also great but not as great as the Blackhawks. Everybody knows this and so does the model.
• Stars were surprising last year, they will surprise nobody this year. A fully healthy Spezza (doubtful...) makes them a cup contender; I put them in a knife-fight with the first two for the division.
• Jets have a lot of underrated players and their success will largely hinge on player usage. A severe-ish injury to Ondrej Pavelec would probably propel them into the playoffs, an age regression and a lot of Pavelec starts probably put them in the McDavid sweepstakes. I don't mind the "bubble-team" prediction.
• Minnesota with a quiet off-season after a lucky season. They'll win a lot of games but miss out in the end.
• Predators will have a new coach this year for the first time ever and I suspect it'll be rough. They'll need a pretty heft overhaul before they're really good but they have too many good defensive pieces to lose many games. Your favourite team will lose to them and you'll wonder why.
• Colorado probably the biggest against-the-grain prediction here. They can expect many things to not go as well for them this year: their goaltending will regress, their shooting percentages will regress, MacKinnon will get the attention he deserves, Roy's (generally good) strategy of pulling his goalie early will not work quite as well; most of all, they will be deeply complacent after being the luckiest team in hockey last year. Prediction seems solid to me.

Pacific

• Kings are great and everybody knows it.
• Sharks are great and everybody except the Sharks themselves know it.
• Canucks were unlucky last year and are not the force they once were but will do reasonably well this year. Bubble team.
• Anaheim as a team were very fortunate in shooting percentages; that should run out. Also a bubble team.
• The newly minted Arizona Coyotes remain middling, surprising nobody.
• The Flames have more talent than people realize but it's still not much. Brian Burke still ruining hearts and brains.
• The Oilers young players are probably better than in previous years, but the organization is still dysfunctional. Probably won't be last by quite as much as the model suggests.