Let's look at these in order of how they actually finished:
- 117 Boston: Finished with an easy first-place, as predicted. Bang on.
- 101 Tampa Bay: Just edged out Montreal for second, predicted to be 5th-6th. Badly wrong.
- 100 Montreal: Third place as predicted. Solid.
- 93 Detroit: Well-ensconced in fourth; predicted to be top three. Iffy.
- 88 Ottawa: Fifth with space on either side; predicted to make the playoffs fairly easily. Mostly wrong.
- 84 Toronto: Clearly in sixth; predicted in 7th or 8th. Mostly right.
- 66 Florida: Well back in seventh; predicted to be a spot or two higher. Mostly right.
- 52 Buffalo: Deep in the basement at 8th, as predicted.
- 109 Pittsburgh: Alone at the top. Predicted to be a few spots lower. More right than wrong.
- 96 Rangers: In second as predicted. Exactly right.
- 94 Philadelphia: Predicted as near the bottom. Badly wrong.
- 93 Columbus: Predicted at eighth, badly wrong. (Note for future: whoever wins the Vezina every year is going to play for a team that finishes better than predicted.)
- 90 Washington: Tightly packed in at fifth/sixth, predicted at sixth. Close as makes no odds.
- 88 New Jersey: Just behind Washington at fifth/sixth, predicted to win the division with an enormous lead. Shootout record was outlandishly unlucky but the prediction is still hideously wrong. Dramatically bad goaltending the likes of which sane teams do not tolerate was another issue.
- 83 Carolina: Finished in seventh but predicted at fifth. Not bad but not great.
- 79 Islanders: Alone at the bottom but predicted in third/fourth. Wrong.
- 112 Colorado: Just edged out the Blues for top spot. Another team with a Vezina candidate outperforms the prediction; which in this case was "lowish bubble team". Badly wrong.
- 111 St Louis: Predicted as close second. Right on the money.
- 107 Chicago: Finished third of the trio way out ahead of the other five. Predicted to do better. Mostly right.
- 98 Minnesota Completely alone in fourth, as predicted. Spot on.
- 91 Dallas: Finished in fifth, predicted to be level for sixth/seventh. Mostly right.
- 88 Nashville: Predicted in sixth/seventh, wound up in sixth. Pretty much spot on.
- 84 Winnipeg: Finished at the bottom but predicted in third/fourth. This is mostly wrong, but in my defence, the Jets hugely underused their own personnel by playing Byfuglien away from D and giving the worst starter in the league many starts.
- 116 Anaheim: Finished in reasonable comfort atop the pacific. Predicted to be a distant fifth. A bad mistake.
- 111 San Jose: Finished second as predicted. Bang on.
- 100 Los Angeles: Finished alone in third; Predicted to run away with the division. More right than wrong.
- 89 Phoenix Finished fourth, predicted to edge out Vancouver for third/fourth. Basically right.
- 83 Vancouver Predicted to come in fourth, came fifth, although the model suggested a 75% of the playoffs and they missed. Right-ish.
- 77 Calgary: Finished alone in sixth, exactly as predicted.
- 67 Edmonton: Finished at the bottom, just as predicted.
On the whole, not bad. Predictions for next year will contain means and standard deviations for standings point, so judging next year will be a little more quantitative.
Goaltending (which is not an explicit part of the model this year or last) seems to me to be at the root of the five worst predictions:
ReplyDeleteTampa, Colorado, and Columbus, who all outperformed the model by a lot, had the three Vezina candidates, and New Jersey and Winnipeg, who underperformed, had very dodgy goaltending. There aren't really any other bad outliers except Anaheim.