Daily Update April 3

The blue zero line is just for ease of visual reference. The unmarked third chart is a first attempt at another way of measuring the quality of the betting model which includes an account of how much needs to be staked. Imagine you begin with 0 smugs. For every wager you place, you must borrow money, which is assumed to be infinitely available and at zero interest (essentially, you borrow "form yourself", but without a specified bankroll since any scale would be arbitrary). Then you place your fake bets; the next day you wager the previous days winnings, if applicable, and any shortfall you make up with new "loans". The graph shows the size of your fortune as a percentage of the money you've had to borrow to date. When the graph touches zero, that's you reaching a new low, being more in debt than ever before. When the graph touches 100, that's you having returned to "even", with no outstanding debts and no net winnings. So, for the reference model, the return is around 200%; combining that with the SMUGS panel, that tells you that you can make around 600 smugs if you are prepared to "borrow" 300 smugs. So
Calgary at 0.35 is good value, and Buffalo at 0.23 is just astonishing value. LA and NYR are quality bets. Los Angeles vs San Jose is a tremendous matchup, and quite likely to be a first round matchup -- one extraordinarily good team will go home very early.

Playoff Chances

Still four spots. The islanders stay mathematically alive by beating Ottawa, who slip back under the capitals and leafs.
Los Angeles clinch with the win in Phoenix, who are sliding hard. That leaves two spots from among these six.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	6
Edmonton	2	3
Florida	0	2
Calgary	0	1

Islanders will be eliminated if Columbus gets a point tonight.