Daily Update April 14

What a delicious way to finish the season---with four big shootout model wins! And what a goal by Spezza to win it for Ottawa in the biggest game of the night.

Final end-of-season returns:

Reference (Score-adjusted fenwick) model:

+209%

Fancy logistic regression model:

+216%

SAF with Strength-of-schedule adjustment model:

+269%

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Calgary	8	7
Edmonton	8	8
New York (I)	7	5
Ottawa	6	3
Winnipeg	6	4
Washington	5	3
Nashville	4	2
Florida	4	7
Carolina	4	3
New Jersey	4	3
Buffalo	4	12
Phoenix	2	2
Vancouver	2	3
Toronto	0	1

Daily Update April 13

A hefty Ottawa bet seems like a great way to go out of the season with a bang. Nothing else especially interesting. Tampa gets home-ice in their series against Montreal iff they win tonight. If St Louis take strictly more points from their game than Colorado does from theirs, then the Blues will play Dallas and Colorado will play Chicago; if they don't it'll be the other way around.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Calgary	8	6
Edmonton	8	8
Winnipeg	6	4
New York (I)	5	4
Ottawa	4	2
Washington	4	2
Florida	4	7
Buffalo	3	11
Carolina	2	2
New Jersey	2	2
Nashville	2	1
Vancouver	0	2
Toronto	0	1
Phoenix	0	1

Daily Update April 12

Possible commentary edited in later. Birthday festivities beckon.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Calgary	8	6
Winnipeg	6	4
Edmonton	6	7
New York (I)	5	4
Washington	4	2
Florida	4	6
Buffalo	3	10
Ottawa	2	1
Carolina	2	2
New Jersey	2	2
Toronto	0	0
Nashville	0	0
Vancouver	0	1

Daily Update April 11

The Isles didn't just come home at 0.33, they were rampant at 67%. Los Angeles rolled over Edmonton, and Florida dispensed with Toronto. That's enough for a big model win. Nothing too strange here, mostly favourites or close except the isles and canes; who both played last night. So could be a mix.

Playoff Chances

Rangers have clinched home-ice advantage, against either Philly or Columbus.
Phoenix in a bit of a tight spot after losing to Nashville; they need strictly more points from their 81st game than Dallas takes from theirs so that the 82nd one against one another still matters; that means that Dallas is in if they win tonight. I want Dallas to go through (I think they're the kind of 8th seed that could really take down a #1, especially if either of the luckier teams (Anaheim/Colorado) slips into first, like they might) but I'm still hoping that they lose tonight so set up a winner takes all on the last night.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Calgary	8	5
Edmonton	6	7
Winnipeg	4	3
Florida	4	6
New York (I)	3	3
Buffalo	3	10
Ottawa	2	1
Washington	2	1
New Jersey	1	1
Vancouver	0	1
Carolina	0	1
Toronto	0	0
Nashville	0	0

Daily Update April 10

Augh shootouts why why why. Both Los Angeles and Detroit manhandled their opponents only to lose in the shootout.

Nothing too strange here. The islanders team is nearly unrecognizable compared to a few weeks back (11 rookies now playing) but the model doesn't know that, so that's probably money wasted. Florida to knock off the hapless leafs is good value, as is most of the rest. There's still time to lose a packet of smugs before the season's done, though.

Playoff Chances

The east is all sewn up, Columbus and Detroit are in, New Jersey and Washington are out. Matchups yet to be determined, except Montreal will play Tampa with home-ice to be decided.

Plots stretched out to the last month; these two teams will duke it out for the last spot. This will almost certainly come down to the final game of the year, when they meet in Phoenix. One playoff matchup is already set, namely Los Angeles at San Jose. That is a cruel, cruel trick to play on hockey fans, in the sense that they're both extraordinary and one of them has to lose, but it's wonderful in the sense that it'll be an amazing series almost guaranteed to go seven games.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Calgary	8	5
Edmonton	6	6
Buffalo	3	9
Winnipeg	2	2
Florida	2	5
New York (I)	1	2
Vancouver	0	0
Carolina	0	0
Ottawa	0	0
Toronto	0	0
Nashville	0	0
New Jersey	0	0
Washington	0	0

Daily Update April 9

The two shootout losses in the top two bets are just like old times. Florida were blown out, the islanders were outclassed in a snoozer, Toronto were shutout with sub-40% possession in a game they had to win to not be eliminated. The bluejackets surrendered a late goal to Phoenix to tie the score but then scored in overtime to all but guarantee a playoff spot, which would be their second ever. The first one, in which they were swept in the first round, is not exactly a happy memory. The players were obviously happy but I have to say the coaches getting pumped here was pretty cute. And, because I love fans, how about this recording of the crowd as Johansen scores the overtime winner on a long stretch pass breakaway. Magical.

The bet on Detroit certainly looks outlandish, but the more I think about it, the more I like it. Detroit will be playing their brains out with their best non-injured players (including that Nyquist chap, holy moley) and Pittsburgh will be playing a skeleton crew, with one obvious exception: Kris Letang, who had a stroke (!?!) earlier in the year will be returning. I guess they want to see if he can be at game-speed for the playoffs. Pittsburgh winning makes it more likely that they play Columbus, if they lose they're more likely to play Detroit again. That's the only non-pride reward for winning for Pittsburgh. The no bet on Columbus/Dallas is also kinda interesting, since I made up fake odds that would guarantee that it's a no-bet. No bookie will lay odds on the game because it's a restart of the one in which Rich Peverley had a heart attack, and they'll play 60 minutes except Columbus will start with a 1-0 lead. I guess nobody's models cover that sort of thing. The rest ordinary.

Playoff Chances

Charts doubled to past 20 days.

Philadelphia are in with their win; Ottawa, Toronto, Carolina all out. This leaves the above four fighting for the last two spots. If Detroit get a point tonight, they are in; if Columbus win tonight, they are in; if both of those things happen, then both of Washington and New Jersey are out, but if only one of those things happen they are both still alive.

Nashville are out with their loss, Minnesota in with their win. The last spot goes to one of these two teams.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Edmonton	6	6
Calgary	6	4
Buffalo	3	9
Winnipeg	2	2
Florida	2	5
New York (I)	1	2
Vancouver	0	0
Carolina	0	0
Ottawa	0	0
Toronto	0	0
Nashville	0	0

Part of the excitement of Points-after-elimination is that it creates genuine excitement for the end of season games. All of the freshly eliminated teams, for instance, except Toronto, could catch the Alberta teams for the first pick.

Daily Update April 8

So I watched a chunk of the Minnesota/Winnipeg game and I will never get any of those minutes of my life back. At this point I think I prefer to see Phoenix take the last wildcard spot instead of Minnesota. They'll lose just as easily in the first round and we won't have to watch anymore of the most boring hockey this side of Nashville. Last night's game: 84 total corsi events. Remember when San Jose got burned by Ben Scrivens? They had a hundred that game on their own. Flames/Devils only had 87, because when you change the channel from the Minnesota game, you get New Jersey. Or, for a bump up in excitement to "slime mold", you could have watched the Canucks limp out of the playoff race into the ditch with a 101-event game. Not the night for hockey.

TONIGHT, on the other hand, everything is happening. For evaluating bets, nothing really jumps out at me as out of the ordinary.

Playoff Chances

Rangers clinch with the Devils losing and so this is down to three spots. Here are the shenanigans that can do down tonight: If Philadelphia win tonight in any fashion, they clinch. If they lose in overtime or a shootout, then they clinch unless NJ win out in regulation and Philly loses out in regulation, during which NJ must make up a goal difference of 11 relative to Philadelphia. The second tie-breaker (after ROWs) is head-to-head, but that is very often tied (like with PHI-NJ) so the third tie-breaker of total goal-difference could well come into play. That could lead to some fun on the final day where so-and-so need to win by 2 goals more than so-and-so need to win by. That would be something to watch on split-screen.

• If Carolina lose, they are out.
• If Ottawa loses, they are out.
• If Detroit gets a point and Columbus also gets a point, the Hurricanes are eliminated.
• If Columbus gets a point and Toronto gets none, Toronto is out.
• If Columbus gets a point, the Senators will be out unless they win out in regulation, the Red Wings lose out in regulation, and Ottawa makes up a goal difference of 24 across 8 games. That is, on average, the Sens/Detroit-opponents must win all 8 games vs Sens-opponents/Detroit by three goals. We might file that under Deeply Unlikely, but it does conjure up an amusing scenario for Ottawa @ Pittsburgh, which is the very last eastern-conference game, 7:30pm eastern, the day after what must necessarily have been for this scenario a whipping of Toronto the night before. Detroit has just lost their matinee against St Louis. Ottawa is in if they win by 8. Imagine you're Paul MacLean -- how do you coach that game?

None of Washington, Jersey, Columbus, or Detroit can be eliminated or clinch tonight.

• If Dallas lose in regulation or Phoenix lose at all, then Minnesota is in.
• If Nashville lose, they are out.

Suffice it to say that I'll be watching a lot of hockey tonight.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Edmonton	6	5
Calgary	6	4
Buffalo	3	8
Winnipeg	2	2
Florida	2	4
New York (I)	1	1
Vancouver	0	0

Daily Update April 7

Playoff Chances

Still four spots, just barely. Two spots.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Edmonton	6	5
Calgary	4	3
Buffalo	3	8
Winnipeg	2	1
Florida	2	4
New York (I)	1	1

Daily Update April 6

Well obviously the near constant winning these days brings a tear of joy to the eye. Toronto got blown away at home with under 30% of the puck; Rob Ford got so drunk he was thrown out of the ACC.

Awfully good odds for an Islander team in Columbus; suits me fine. Buffalo not likely to come good in Philly but 0.29 is astounding. The rest minor.

Playoff Chances

Still four spots. Devils do themselves a huge favour, but the four top teams remain in the driving seats.

Still two spots. Always fun to see the Coyotes slide.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Edmonton	4	4
Calgary	4	3
Buffalo	3	7
Winnipeg	2	1
New York (I)	1	1
Florida	0	3

Daily Update April 5

Edits with commentary perhaps later.

Playoff Chances

Still four spots.

Still two spots.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	7
Edmonton	4	4
Calgary	4	3
Florida	0	3
New York (I)	0	0
Winnipeg	0	0

Daily Update April 4

Bottom panel rewritten so that breakeven is at 0. Now the y-axis can properly be thought of as the return-on-investment if you treat the year as a unit. This year the return at the moment is just over 105%. Two weeks ago the return was around 0%. Volatile stuff.
If the "results" chart looks different from yesterday, that's because I deleted five days of odds and had to retake the ones I could. This wipes out some bookies completely (since I don't have historical odds for everybody) and replaces morning odds with closing odds for all the others, which is annoying. Nothing too juicy outside of the mammoth bet against Anaheim, which seems ok to me -- they can be very, very fragile, especially against disciplined teams, like, say, Nashville.

Playoff Chances

Four spots. It's becoming abundantly clear just how much losses by some teams are required just as much as wins by others.

Two spots. Los Angeles clinched in spite of the loss, and Winnipeg's loss finally eliminates them. Canucks and Preds wait for death.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	6
Edmonton	2	3
Calgary	2	2
Florida	0	2
New York (I)	0	0
Winnipeg	0	0

Daily Update April 3

The blue zero line is just for ease of visual reference. The unmarked third chart is a first attempt at another way of measuring the quality of the betting model which includes an account of how much needs to be staked. Imagine you begin with 0 smugs. For every wager you place, you must borrow money, which is assumed to be infinitely available and at zero interest (essentially, you borrow "form yourself", but without a specified bankroll since any scale would be arbitrary). Then you place your fake bets; the next day you wager the previous days winnings, if applicable, and any shortfall you make up with new "loans". The graph shows the size of your fortune as a percentage of the money you've had to borrow to date. When the graph touches zero, that's you reaching a new low, being more in debt than ever before. When the graph touches 100, that's you having returned to "even", with no outstanding debts and no net winnings. So, for the reference model, the return is around 200%; combining that with the SMUGS panel, that tells you that you can make around 600 smugs if you are prepared to "borrow" 300 smugs. So
Calgary at 0.35 is good value, and Buffalo at 0.23 is just astonishing value. LA and NYR are quality bets. Los Angeles vs San Jose is a tremendous matchup, and quite likely to be a first round matchup -- one extraordinarily good team will go home very early.

Playoff Chances

Still four spots. The islanders stay mathematically alive by beating Ottawa, who slip back under the capitals and leafs.
Los Angeles clinch with the win in Phoenix, who are sliding hard. That leaves two spots from among these six.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	6
Edmonton	2	3
Florida	0	2
Calgary	0	1

Islanders will be eliminated if Columbus gets a point tonight.

Daily Update April 2

Carolina and Winnipeg provide the big model wins, and Toronto the only big model loss. Buffalo winning in the shootout is a decentish model loss but a delight to Sens fans.
Tonight, much smaller fry. Islanders are decent value at 0.4 although obviously I'll be hoping they lose. They need at least a point to stay alive in the playoff race.

Playoff Chances

Montreal and Tampa both clinched, so this is down to four spots. Columbus keep pace with a single point, but New Jersey (playing a game they were expected to win) do not. Capitals loss drops NJ beneath Ottawa; the Ottawa-New Jersey game on April 10 is starting to look very important.
Still three spots. Dallas takes the upper hand over Phoenix by taking two points from Washington where Phoenix only took one from Winnipeg.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	5	7
Edmonton	2	2
Florida	0	3
Calgary	0	2

Daily Update April 1

Much painful losing. The jets were up 4-0 and still Pavelecked a way to lose in overtime, turning what would have been a decent night for the model into an unmitigated loss.

Yowza that's a lot of fake money. Calgary, Carolina, Winnipeg, all given delightful odds against teams with severe weaknesses. Sure, why not. Lots of clarity after tonight -- Islanders could well be eliminated, Jersey/Columbus/Toronto/Carolina/Washington all in action.

Playoff Chances

Still six spots. Senators win again, still need many other wins. Wings have the strangest schedule: Boston/Buffalo/Montreal(b2b)/Buffalo/Pittsburgh(b2b)/Carolina/St Louis. Two games against buffalo and one against carolina looks good, but the other teams are the sorts who beat up on Detroit and also two back-to-backs. Hmmm.
Three spots. Wild do themselves a big favour by beating Los Angeles. Jets and Predators wait for death.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	6
Edmonton	2	2
Florida	0	2
Calgary	0	1