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Thursday 20 March 2014

Daily Update March 20

Jets won by piling on the goals, including this OT winner which is really very pleasing. Why shoot when you can make every opposing player fall down first, and also have one of your own players in the fetal position in the net? The game itself was back and forth with lots of chances and goals. Even possession, pick'em odds, and no team ever winning by more than one goal. That is about as even as you can get, between two teams who I think are probably about equally talented. One has had incredible luck (105 PDO early in the season, punching well about their weight in expected points relative to goal difference) and the other has had Ondrej Pavelec. It is a little bit sad.

Plenty of big bets tonight, which makes me nervous as always. Nothing really looks out of place, though, although I'm not super confident about picking the hospital-ward red wings to defeat the other hospital ward penguins. Florida given at 0.36 away to Phoenix (which is, frankly, not an imposing rink to play at, what with Phoenix having no fans to speak of) is the kind of thing that makes me very optimistic indeed, and anybody given at 0.38 to win vs Edmonton is also lovely, even if it is Buffalo.

Playoffs East

Still three spots here; Flyers chances are actually above Rangers now, but this graphic is about churn, not just a table of most-recent chances. Leafs precipitous slide continues. I'm starting to look forward to April 12---Leafs day might fall on my birthday this year. Five of the leafs remaining eleven games are against eastern conference bubble teams, six if you count tampa. The other five are the Blues, the Flames, the Bruins, the Panthers, and the Jets, not in that order. All up, the leafs probably need 0.500 hockey to get in, and I'm not sure they can do it. Ottawa, meanwhile, needs to go around 10-2-2; Winnipeg needs about 9-1-1; and Vancouver about 9-1. Flimsy indeed.

Playoffs West

Both Vancouver and Winnipeg win last night but not enough to move the needle. At this point, what they really need is an extended losing streak by some/all of Minnesota/Dallas/Phoenix. Dallas getting beaten up a little bit recently.

Points after elimination

TeamPointsGames
Buffalo01

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