Daily Update March 31

Back into the (minor) winning ways with a bit of shootout luck.
Can Winnipeg duplicate their unlikely win in Anaheim from earlier this season? The model thinks perhaps they can, and 0.35 odds are lovely too. Florida given at the same level is also great value, as would be the case for any team playing Brodeur, who, after years and years of being good enough to single-handedly win games, is now bad enough to single-handedly lose them. Risky today but not crazy.

Playoff Chances

Still six spots. The really bizarre thing about this particular bunch of teams fighting (effectively) for three or four spots is that they don't play against one another nearly as much as you might thing -- maybe a third of the remaining games are internal to this bunch.
Three spots; no movement. Minnesota still in the driver's seat, but I wouldn't be too sure; if they beat Winnipeg and Nashville (plausible) but lose to all of Los Angeles, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Boston, and St Louis (OOF, also plausible) then the chance that they fall out is pretty non-trivial.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	6
Edmonton	2	2
Florida	0	1
Calgary	0	1

Islanders should drop out fairly soon, after that it'll be pretty much down to the wire for almost every other club.

Daily Update March 30

Back in the winning! Mostly by betting on Dallas and against Toronto. I had the misfortune to watch the end of the Boston Washington game, which was the manhandling anybody could have expected. The announcers were whipping themselves into hysterics at every chance in a kind of wish-fulfillment fantasy about how Washington were poised to win, as they were scored on repeatedly, took many penalties, and generally were bad. I've never seen a game be less in spirit like what the announcers were saying.
Even odds for Chicago against anybody outside of LAK/SJS is pretty close to free money, and Boston is a lot better than Philadelphia, just like the Rangers are a lot better than the Oilers. Calgary are good value at 0.44; nothing out of the ordinary today at all.

Playoff Chances

Still six spots here. Wings and Bluejackets the overwhelming favourites now for the wildcard spots, solidified a little with wins. Sens have moved past the Leafs in the "hunt", and may well be putting together a nice drive to 9th. The jackets loss/win in the two previous days gives you a rough idea of how much each game is worth now -- about 10% in the odds. Both Colorado and Chicago clinched last night, so this is down to three spots. Losing to Minnesota while Dallas won is pretty much the nightmare scenario for Phoenix, and you see it in black and white.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	6
Edmonton	2	2
Florida	0	1
Calgary	0	0

Buffalo retake the lead with a loser point! This "race" is not for the fleet-of-foot. The Flames are, in fact, eliminated -- in the best case scenario, they win out with 8 ROWs, and Dallas beats Phoenix on closing night *in a shootout*, and both Dallas and Phoenix lose all of their remaining games in regulation. That would create a three-way tie on 85 points for the final spot, Calgary and Dallas will both have 33 ROWs to Phoenix's 30; then you'd look at the head-to-head record between Calgary and Dallas which is two wins for Dallas and one for Calgary; the first Dallas win doesn't count because they had two home games and Calgary doesn't, so the first Dallas home game is thrown out, that leaves a regulation win for Dallas and shootout win for Calgary, so Dallas takes the tie. Whew.

Daily Update March 29

Hard to be sad about model losses when the Sens knocked off Chicago and the Leafs lost in regulation again.
Dallas given at 0.35 is delicious, as is Florida at 0.41 at home to a not-totally solid Montreal. Also, pick-em odds on Detroit @ Toronto is bizarre, although Detroit is badly hurt. Everything else looks pretty standard.

Playoff Chances

Pittsburgh clinched with a win yesterday, so this is down to five spots. The leafs continue to slide hard; they lost their seventh straight (all in regulation), although they put up a rare possession win. Capitals get a surprisingly large boost considering that they didn't play.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Edmonton	2	2
Buffalo	2	5
Florida	0	1

Daily Update March 28

So the model's long winning streak comes to an end, and I blame the 26-shooter shootout between the islanders and lightning. Colorado winning in overtime also didn't help; but on the whole I still feel good about the night.
All pretty small tonight, and mostly poor teams to boot.

Playoff Chances

Painful loss for the Red Wings but gives a noticeable tick for the Leafs and Caps. One point for NJ is just treading water. Minnesota lose again and the Coyotes win gives a picture of two teams heading in opposite directions. Either team, you would have to think, is just chum for San Jose or St Louis.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	2	5
Edmonton	0	1
Florida	0	1

Florida and Buffalo both lost; that makes eliminated teams a combined 1-0-6.

Daily Update March 27

Even more winning is delicious. This run is tremendous and I assure you I changed nothing in the model. Chance is a strange thing. Good value on the Kings again, pretty much every game; playing at Pittsburgh. Vancouver at Colorado is the same story: good possession teams with low shooting recent shooting percentages plays at a goodish team with recent PDO surge. That's the model's bread and butter and if both of those come home I shall feel very good indeed. Islanders is simply tremendous odds; after that, small beer.

Playoff Chances

Almost no movement at all in the east, and just a jot in the west -- a little uptick for the Canucks and a small drop for Minnesota.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	2	4
Edmonton	0	1
Florida	0	0

Pittsburgh clinches tonight with a point. Flames will be on the brink if Phoenix wins.

Daily Update March 26

It is a lot easier to like Luongo when he isn't making many, many ludicrous saves against Ottawa, including in the shootout. Sigh. (Spellcheck doesn't like "Luongo". Did you mean "Gluon"? Or perhaps you meant "Mongol"? "Longbow"?) Also, the maple leafs lost their sixth in a row, at home to St Louis who utterly, utterly dominated them -- 72% of the puck! However, the winning continues apace for the model; 57 smugs is one of the best days all year.

Playoff Chances

From now until the end of the season, I'll be including every team which hasn't clinched or been eliminated. (Isn't it strange, verbally, how one clinches oneself but one is eliminated by others? As if that were remotely true.)

East

Seven spots; Pittsburgh will clinch on Thursday or Friday. Toronto sliding ever harder; Isles just waiting for death, Carolina and Ottawa not far behind.

West

Five spots. Phoenix/Dallas on the final night starting to look bigger and bigger.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	2	4
Edmonton	0	1
Florida	0	0

Florida eliminated despite beating Ottawa; they can't possibly get enough ROWs now to pass Columbus, who already have 80 points (Florida's maximum) and they can't pass both of detroit and toronto since they play each other one more time. Islanders will be next up, probably in a few days; then Calgary, then a lull again. San Jose clinched a spot yesterday, Anaheim today.

Daily Update March 25

Winning! Such delicious winning. A big model win on a senators shootout win is How We Like It. Winnipeg were good in Dallas but still lost by one; Buf nearly fought two dudes again. The model has been on an unholy tear the last few days and I have to say I am delighted. The officiating in the Sens game was dreadful, and MacLean says that the refs apologised to him after the game. If that's true, it's a first. Montreal knocked off boston in a game featuring this beautiful hip check. Obviously the Bruins responded to a clean hit with goonery, and Lucic called Emelin a chicken after the game, because boston.

I'm not totally comfortable with the Phoenix bet but it's not outlandish. Everything else is pretty routine.

Playoff Chances

Today, every team whose last ten days show any top-line movement at all:

East

Six spots. Somehow the caps sitting to the left of the leafs there makes the toronto slide all the more dramatic. Sens too far down to the move the needle although they won.

West

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	2	3
Edmonton	0	0

Edmonton finally eliminated; Florida still hanging by a thread. You can see that Buffalo has built an insurmountable lead in the 8 days they were the only eliminated team.