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Wednesday, 9 April 2014

Daily Update April 9


The two shootout losses in the top two bets are just like old times. Florida were blown out, the islanders were outclassed in a snoozer, Toronto were shutout with sub-40% possession in a game they had to win to not be eliminated. The bluejackets surrendered a late goal to Phoenix to tie the score but then scored in overtime to all but guarantee a playoff spot, which would be their second ever. The first one, in which they were swept in the first round, is not exactly a happy memory. The players were obviously happy but I have to say the coaches getting pumped here was pretty cute. And, because I love fans, how about this recording of the crowd as Johansen scores the overtime winner on a long stretch pass breakaway. Magical.

The bet on Detroit certainly looks outlandish, but the more I think about it, the more I like it. Detroit will be playing their brains out with their best non-injured players (including that Nyquist chap, holy moley) and Pittsburgh will be playing a skeleton crew, with one obvious exception: Kris Letang, who had a stroke (!?!) earlier in the year will be returning. I guess they want to see if he can be at game-speed for the playoffs. Pittsburgh winning makes it more likely that they play Columbus, if they lose they're more likely to play Detroit again. That's the only non-pride reward for winning for Pittsburgh. The no bet on Columbus/Dallas is also kinda interesting, since I made up fake odds that would guarantee that it's a no-bet. No bookie will lay odds on the game because it's a restart of the one in which Rich Peverley had a heart attack, and they'll play 60 minutes except Columbus will start with a 1-0 lead. I guess nobody's models cover that sort of thing. The rest ordinary.

Playoff Chances


Charts doubled to past 20 days.

Philadelphia are in with their win; Ottawa, Toronto, Carolina all out. This leaves the above four fighting for the last two spots. If Detroit get a point tonight, they are in; if Columbus win tonight, they are in; if both of those things happen, then both of Washington and New Jersey are out, but if only one of those things happen they are both still alive.

Nashville are out with their loss, Minnesota in with their win. The last spot goes to one of these two teams.

Points after elimination

TeamPointsGames
Edmonton66
Calgary64
Buffalo39
Winnipeg22
Florida25
New York (I)12
Vancouver00
Carolina00
Ottawa00
Toronto00
Nashville00
Part of the excitement of Points-after-elimination is that it creates genuine excitement for the end of season games. All of the freshly eliminated teams, for instance, except Toronto, could catch the Alberta teams for the first pick.

2 comments:

  1. Re: Dallas/Columbus, perhaps the bets from before were simply carried over? I.e. that, from the bookies' point of view, the game has been in progress for a month?

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  2. I don't know for sure but I'd expect that it'd be declared a "push" -- everybody gets their wagers back and nobody wins or loses. Most bookies want to have the events resolved pretty quickly.

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