Daily Update April 7

Playoff Chances

Still four spots, just barely. Two spots.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Edmonton	6	5
Calgary	4	3
Buffalo	3	8
Winnipeg	2	1
Florida	2	4
New York (I)	1	1

Daily Update April 6

Well obviously the near constant winning these days brings a tear of joy to the eye. Toronto got blown away at home with under 30% of the puck; Rob Ford got so drunk he was thrown out of the ACC.

Awfully good odds for an Islander team in Columbus; suits me fine. Buffalo not likely to come good in Philly but 0.29 is astounding. The rest minor.

Playoff Chances

Still four spots. Devils do themselves a huge favour, but the four top teams remain in the driving seats.

Still two spots. Always fun to see the Coyotes slide.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Edmonton	4	4
Calgary	4	3
Buffalo	3	7
Winnipeg	2	1
New York (I)	1	1
Florida	0	3

Daily Update April 5

Edits with commentary perhaps later.

Playoff Chances

Still four spots.

Still two spots.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	7
Edmonton	4	4
Calgary	4	3
Florida	0	3
New York (I)	0	0
Winnipeg	0	0

Daily Update April 4

Bottom panel rewritten so that breakeven is at 0. Now the y-axis can properly be thought of as the return-on-investment if you treat the year as a unit. This year the return at the moment is just over 105%. Two weeks ago the return was around 0%. Volatile stuff.
If the "results" chart looks different from yesterday, that's because I deleted five days of odds and had to retake the ones I could. This wipes out some bookies completely (since I don't have historical odds for everybody) and replaces morning odds with closing odds for all the others, which is annoying. Nothing too juicy outside of the mammoth bet against Anaheim, which seems ok to me -- they can be very, very fragile, especially against disciplined teams, like, say, Nashville.

Playoff Chances

Four spots. It's becoming abundantly clear just how much losses by some teams are required just as much as wins by others.

Two spots. Los Angeles clinched in spite of the loss, and Winnipeg's loss finally eliminates them. Canucks and Preds wait for death.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	6
Edmonton	2	3
Calgary	2	2
Florida	0	2
New York (I)	0	0
Winnipeg	0	0

Daily Update April 3

The blue zero line is just for ease of visual reference. The unmarked third chart is a first attempt at another way of measuring the quality of the betting model which includes an account of how much needs to be staked. Imagine you begin with 0 smugs. For every wager you place, you must borrow money, which is assumed to be infinitely available and at zero interest (essentially, you borrow "form yourself", but without a specified bankroll since any scale would be arbitrary). Then you place your fake bets; the next day you wager the previous days winnings, if applicable, and any shortfall you make up with new "loans". The graph shows the size of your fortune as a percentage of the money you've had to borrow to date. When the graph touches zero, that's you reaching a new low, being more in debt than ever before. When the graph touches 100, that's you having returned to "even", with no outstanding debts and no net winnings. So, for the reference model, the return is around 200%; combining that with the SMUGS panel, that tells you that you can make around 600 smugs if you are prepared to "borrow" 300 smugs. So
Calgary at 0.35 is good value, and Buffalo at 0.23 is just astonishing value. LA and NYR are quality bets. Los Angeles vs San Jose is a tremendous matchup, and quite likely to be a first round matchup -- one extraordinarily good team will go home very early.

Playoff Chances

Still four spots. The islanders stay mathematically alive by beating Ottawa, who slip back under the capitals and leafs.
Los Angeles clinch with the win in Phoenix, who are sliding hard. That leaves two spots from among these six.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	6
Edmonton	2	3
Florida	0	2
Calgary	0	1

Islanders will be eliminated if Columbus gets a point tonight.

Daily Update April 2

Carolina and Winnipeg provide the big model wins, and Toronto the only big model loss. Buffalo winning in the shootout is a decentish model loss but a delight to Sens fans.
Tonight, much smaller fry. Islanders are decent value at 0.4 although obviously I'll be hoping they lose. They need at least a point to stay alive in the playoff race.

Playoff Chances

Montreal and Tampa both clinched, so this is down to four spots. Columbus keep pace with a single point, but New Jersey (playing a game they were expected to win) do not. Capitals loss drops NJ beneath Ottawa; the Ottawa-New Jersey game on April 10 is starting to look very important.
Still three spots. Dallas takes the upper hand over Phoenix by taking two points from Washington where Phoenix only took one from Winnipeg.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	5	7
Edmonton	2	2
Florida	0	3
Calgary	0	2

Daily Update April 1

Much painful losing. The jets were up 4-0 and still Pavelecked a way to lose in overtime, turning what would have been a decent night for the model into an unmitigated loss.

Yowza that's a lot of fake money. Calgary, Carolina, Winnipeg, all given delightful odds against teams with severe weaknesses. Sure, why not. Lots of clarity after tonight -- Islanders could well be eliminated, Jersey/Columbus/Toronto/Carolina/Washington all in action.

Playoff Chances

Still six spots. Senators win again, still need many other wins. Wings have the strangest schedule: Boston/Buffalo/Montreal(b2b)/Buffalo/Pittsburgh(b2b)/Carolina/St Louis. Two games against buffalo and one against carolina looks good, but the other teams are the sorts who beat up on Detroit and also two back-to-backs. Hmmm.
Three spots. Wild do themselves a big favour by beating Los Angeles. Jets and Predators wait for death.

Points after elimination

Team	Points	Games
Buffalo	3	6
Edmonton	2	2
Florida	0	2
Calgary	0	1